JPMorgan analysts see bitcoin’s price tag of $40,000 as a key battleground that bullish traders need to retake in order for the cryptocurrency’s meteoric rise to continue.
Greater input from the multi-billion dollar bitcoin trust owned by digital asset manager Grayscale Investments is needed to sustain prices above that key level, according to JPMorgan’s strategists and Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, its global market strategy head. The analysis also took into account demand for bitcoin futures.
The bearish outlook would likely be triggered by a bevy of traders exiting the market on a potential change in the short-term trend and a lack of further institutional flows, according to the report.
“The flow into the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust would likely need to sustain its $100 million per day pace over the coming days and weeks for such a breakout to occur,” strategists said in a note to investors on Friday referring to a price breach above $40,000.
Grayscale announced on Saturday it had raised its largest single-day raise in the firm’s existence, adding above $700 million to its family of products including bitcoin.
How long the digital asset manager can sustain those levels remains unclear but analysts at JPMorgan said bitcoin is in a similar position to November 2020 when bitcoin was climbing to a new record high but failed to pass $20,000.
Three years later, on Dec. 16, 2020, bitcoin eventually passed $20,000 – a move the JPMorgan analysts attributed to Grayscale’s involvement in the market. Grayscale is owned by Digital Currency Group, CoinDesk’s parent company.
Traders “could propagate the past week’s correction,” JPMorgan analysts also said referring to the sharp over-20% drop in bitcoin’s value on Jan. 10, before a partial recovery prompted by opportunists.
If bitcoin fails to retake $40,000, “momentum signals will naturally decay from here up till the end of March,” the analysts said in the report.
At press time, bitcoin was trading at $37,250, up 2% over 24 hours.